Alabama vs UCF
/Alabama vs UCF
Opener: UCF -6 & 133.5 O/U
Currently Sitting: UCF -5 & 134
Intro and Trends
Too bad this wasn’t a college football matchup, so we could finally put to rest the absurdity of UCF being National Champs. But this one is on the hardwood, at CFE Federal Credit Union Arena in beautiful Orlando, Florida, which means Alabama will in fact be the away team.
Last year, UCF went to Alabama as 10-point dogs and beat Alabama SU 65 – 62. This game was set at a total of 134.5. UCF shot 48% from the field while Alabama shot 43%. UCF out-rebounded Alabama 37 to 28. Honestly, for me to be more confident in this one, I would have liked to see Alabama win this one. Why give Alabama any motivation, you know? The positive, UCF knows they can beat Alabama.
As of this writing, at 4:45pm ET, 55% of wagers ATS (Against The Spread) are falling on UCF, but the money is on Alabama forcing this line to the current number of 5, though you can find 4.5 around. 60% of ML wagers are falling on UCF with the majority of money falling on Alabama. 61% of wagers falling on the over, though the money is about even. First half totals set at UCF -4 as an opener and now sitting at UCF -3, with a first half total opener of 63.5 and staying right around that number at 63 to 63.5.
Alabama is 1-5 against the spread, 5-1 SU, and 5-1 O/U. On the road, Alabama is 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U. Alabama is +2.3 units SU on the season.
UCF is 5-1 against the spread, 5-1 SU, and 3-3 O/U. At home, UCF is 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U. UCF is +5 units SU on the season.
Prediction
This will be a great matchup and it’s a shame it’s not televised on a better channel than ESPNU. UCF is one of the best defensive units in the nation, only giving up 62.3 points per game, has the 18th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation (KenPom) and holding opponents to a 37.8 FG %. UCF is shooting 48.2% from the field and out-rebounding opponents by 7 rpg. Alabama is giving up 70.3 points per game, has the 49th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation and holding opponents to a 45.8 FG %. Alabama is shooting 45.2% from the field and out-rebounding opponents by 6 rbg.
I will be taking:
UCF -2.5 1H for 2 Units
UCF -4.5 for 2 Units
This one is simple, UCF is a better defensive team. UCF is a better shooting team. UCF is a better rebounding team. In order for me to back Alabama on the road, I need to see them being better in one of those categories – if not more. UCF loves to slow the game down, so this one will be right around the number. This is why I will be backing the team that can get the big rebound, or stop, or make the big shot. UCF is the play.