Buffalo Bulls vs West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia Mountaineers

For the third year in a row, West Virginia will start the season ranked in the AP Preseason Top 25. This year, the Mountaineers will start the season ranked 13th. In 2017-18, the Mountaineers finished ranked 15th with a 26-11 record and runs to the Big 12 title game and the NCAA Sweet 16, where they lost to the eventual champs in Villanova. West Virginia was GOOD last year but this year they will be without their two best players (arguably) from 2017-18 and the glue that held these boys together. Jevon Carter, the leader, the floor general, the captain of the team, has graduated and along with him, Daxter Miles Jr.

Jevon Carter (17.3 ppg) will without a doubt be the biggest loss for the mountaineers. Anytime you lose a point guard like Carter, its going to be a huge loss. Throw in the fact that you lost fellow guard Daxter Miles Jr (12.9 ppg) and you have even more issues. In replacement of one of last year’s best backcourts will more than likely be a backcourt by committee. You’ll have Bolden (who sat out in the exhibition against Penn State), Harler, McCabe. It’s going to take some time for these guys to find their identity and the Mountaineers will most definitely play through their bigs.

Returning for the Mountaineers is a SOLID front court. Sagaba Konate (10.8 ppg, 7.6 rebounds, 3.2 blocks) and is an absolute unit down low, Lamont West (9.4 ppg), Wesley Harris (5.3 ppg), and Esa Ahmad (10.2 ppg). If West Virginia is to have another great season, it will be due to these guys. Konate and West are both ranked as a Top 30 NBA prospect.

Buffalo Bulls

The hype in Buffalo is HEAVY and for good reason. This year’s Buffalo team is going to be nice and they are my favorite mid-major team to make a run this season. I can see them putting together a run like Rhode Island or dare I say it, Loyola of last year. These boys can play.

“As many of you already know, this is by far the most talented UB Men’s Basketball squad in history. This team is loaded enough to do serious damage in the NCAA Tournament and be a ranked team for much of their season.” If they start off with an upset win, on the road, they just might receive that ranking earlier than expected.

Like West Virginia, the Bulls have lost their starting point guard, but unlike West Virginia, the Bulls have the guys to step in right away. Wes Clark is gone, but this is not as big of a loss as Carter and the guys that will be stepping in, have experience and will thrive. Jayvon Graves (Sophomore) and Davonta Jordan (Junior) have experience and can play. Add in former MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Dontay Caruthers, and this backcourt is shaping up very nicely.

When I think of West Virginia, I think of hard-nosed, in your face, suffocating defense. Well, in this matchup, Buffalo will ultimately have the advantage and will be one of the stingiest defensive teams in the country the way these guards can play on the ball.

Did you honestly think I would forget about CJ Buckets? Mark my words, CJ Massinburg, the 6-3 Senior will be the MAC Player of the Year. He can do it all and he will be the vocal leader and tone setter that these Bulls need and will get.

Now for the bigs, you have “The Big Apple”, Brock Bertram, the 6-11 Sophomore. Nick Perkins, 6-8 Senior. Montell McRae, the 6-10 Senior. Jeremy Harris, the 6-7 Senior, who is a mismatch nightmare for opposing squads. CJ Massinburg will be the go-to guy for the Bulls, but Harris might be the best NBA talent on this team. If CJ doesn’t get MAC POY, it will be Jeremy Harris.

Add in the newcomer of freshman Jeenathan Williams, who is one of two four-star recruits joining the Bulls this season and you have added depth. Ranked as the 83rd on rivals Top 150, he can play. He averaged 22 pts, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists a game in his junior year and after transferring to Prolific Prep his senior season, averaged 16 ppg. Jeenathan will play some minutes in this one and adds to the depth of the Bulls.

Outcome

Everything about this game is SCREAMING to take Buffalo. After a great season in 2017-18 and a 13th preseason ranking, this line is already inflated, even with the loss of West Virginia’s backcourt. In college basketball betting, you WIN and LOSE with backcourt play and West Virginia lost a TON in Carter and Miles Jr. In this matchup, the Bulls have the better backcourt and by far. West Virginia will have a very hard time getting into an offense with the Bulls guards all over them and for West Virginia to win they will need to play inside out (or just inside).

I see West Virginia having one of the best front-courts in the nation and usually you will see huge mismatches in a game like this one against a mid-major but that is not the case here. The Bulls have depth, talent, and experience in their front-court. West Virginia has the advantage here, but I like the Bulls to get enough out of their bigs here.

Listen, Buffalo has been thinking about this game since it was put on the calendar. They have been working all off-season for this, to prove themselves right off the jump. They are coming off a win of St. Francis, and will have gotten the jitters out of the way. I love this spot for the Bulls. They have everything I look for in an early season upset pick. They have the talent, the experience, the depth, and they couldn’t ask for a better time to play the Mountaineers as the backcourt is still in flux. If the West Virginia bigs can be contained, I think Buffalo not only covers, but WINS!

Prediction

I am so confident in this pick that I am making it before the line even comes out! I live for games like this. I will be betting the farm and the neighbors farm on this one. If Vegas is smart, they will open this up right around West Virginia -4.5 to - 6.5 but they will not do this. I see this line opening closer to a double-digit spread, anywhere from West Virginia -8.5 to -9.5. If this line gets into the double-digits, WATCH OUT!

- I will be putting a 8 UNIT play on Buffalo to cover if this line opens at WV -10 or above.

- I will be putting a 6 UNIT play on Buffalo to cover if this line opens at WV -8.5 to -9.5.

- I will be putting a 4 UNIT play on Buffalo to cover if this line opens anywhere between WV -5.5 to -8.

AND regardless of where the line opens and closes at, I will be putting a 2 UNIT play on Buffalo to win this one outright! Though I think West Virginia wins this one by 3, I see enough value to put some on the Bulls.

Final: Buffalo 73, West Virginia 76

Article Written By: Gutch